What Are Election Prediction Markets?
Traders must understand that election prediction markets are a unique subset of prediction markets, and that they are not the same as polls and traditional political betting.
How They Work
Sites that cover election prediction markets will let you buy or sell contracts with prices that express the probability of an outcome. A contract priced at 65¢ indicates a 65 percent chance that the outcome is true. Factors that affect market prices include campaigns, debates, news, and polling shifts. The current price reflects the crowd’s estimated probability that an event will occur, aggregating the opinions of traders who bet real money.
How They Differ from Polls
Polls are conducted to capture voters’ intentions at a specific point in time. Prediction markets, on the other hand, reflect traders’ expectations, which they update based on the latest information. Prices in prediction markets are based on polling data, economic factors, betting behaviors, and endorsements. While traditional polls measure sentiment at a single moment, election markets, which are similar in terms of operation to political prediction markets, leverage real-time financial incentives to continuously price changing election odds.
The Two Main Platforms
Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi is one of the well-known US crypto exchanges that offer deeper liquidity on the country’s election markets. Polymarket caters to users worldwide by covering global elections. Check for eligibility in your country before trading.
US Presidential Elections
Presidential election questions in prediction markets are structured around the overall winner, the two main political parties, and debates.
What the Markets Ask
US Presidential election markets cover the general winner, each party’s nomination winner, and electoral college state-level markets. They also cover longer-term markets, such as the likelihood of an officeholder seeking re-election or a contested convention. The 2028 Presidential election is one of the most traded prediction markets on Polymarket, with over $658 million in trading volume in July 2026.
Example market questions:
- “Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”
- “Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?”
- “Will Pennsylvania go Republican in 2028?”
- “Will there be a presidential debate before the 2028 election?”
Resolution Note: Presidential election markets usually rely on the Electoral College certification for resolution, rather than media calls. The difference is important in close races where certification is delayed or actively challenged.
Congressional and Senate Control
Congressional and Senate control prediction markets are among the key attractions for traders in the United States.
What the Markets Ask
Traders on platforms with control-of-government markets can bet on which party will control the House, Senate, or both chambers at the end of an election cycle. Such markets are usually available throughout the congressional term, exhibiting significant changes when the chamber balance is affected by by-elections, members switching parties, and appointments. Individual seat elections also create markets on regulated sites like Kalshi.
Example market questions:
- “Will Republicans control the Senate after the 2026 midterms?”
- “Will Democrats win the House in 2026?”
- “Who will win the Georgia Senate seat in 2026?”
- “Will any party hold a 60-seat Senate supermajority in 2027?”
Note on Shutdown Markets: Kalshi places government shutdown and debt ceiling markets close to Congressional control markets, indicating the policy impacts of the chamber balance.
Polymarket Election Trade: Practical Example
Openly operating global election markets are live on Polymarket. Here’s what it looks like for a trader to place a trade.
Step-by-Step Walkthrough
Create and Fund Your Wallet: Log into Polymarket and transfer USD-pegged stablecoin USDC to your Polygon crypto wallet.
Pick a Market: Find a market by searching, for instance, “Who will win the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election?”
Read Contract Prices: If the price of a “Yes” contract hedging that Candidate A wins is at 60¢ ($0.60) that means there is a 60% implied chance of Candidate A winning according to market traders.
Place Your Trade: Buy 100 shares of “Yes” for Candidate A at $0.60 by spending $60 USDC.
Manage Your Position: Sell your 100 shares before the market resolves if you want to realize profits (ex: news comes out that increases price to 75¢); otherwise, wait for the market to resolve.
Claim Payout Upon Resolution: If Candidate A wins, you’ll be paid $1.00 per share when the market resolves ($100 total, $40 profit); if Candidate A loses, you’ll receive $0.00 per share.
Global Elections
Traders interested in global elections seek reputable platforms that cover a wide range of prediction markets worldwide.
Coverage
Polymarket is the world’s largest platform with global election odds and prediction markets. It covers presidential and parliamentary elections in Europe, Latin America, Asia, and other jurisdictions. Notable trading options in July 2026 include the 2027 French Presidential election ($112 million in volume), the 2026 Brazil Presidential election ($112 million in volume), the 2028 US Presidential election ($658 million in volume), and UK leadership markets.
Example market questions:
- “Who will win the 2027 French Presidential Election?”
- “Who will win the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election?”
- “Who will be the next UK Prime Minister?”
- “Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?”
- “Will the German coalition hold through 2026?”
Resolution Note: Global election markets use official results from a country’s electoral commission for resolution, and payout times vary by location due to time zone differences.
By-Elections and State and Local Races
Recognized prediction platforms cover lower-level election markets, including by-elections and state-level races.
By-Elections
Parliamentary by-elections and state or local races usually generate prediction markets if the outcome is difficult to predict or politically significant. A good example is the Clacton by-election in the United Kingdom in July 2026. Due to its significant impact on the UK’s political scene, the race generated more than 2 million dollars in trading volume on the Polymarket platform.
Example market questions:
- “Who will win the Clacton by-election?”
- “Will the Republican candidate win the special election in [district]?”
- “Will [governor] win re-election in [state]?”
Note: State and local elections typically generate markets on Kalshi and PredictIt, but they have less overall coverage than Presidential races. Coverage increases around high-profile or competitive races.
How Election Markets Resolve and Where It Gets Complicated
Unlike economic event prediction markets that rely on clean, scheduled releases like CPI or non-farm payroll reports, election outcomes carry higher risks of delays and legal disputes.
Standard Resolution
Election prediction markets are typically resolved through a named official source:
This could be the Electoral College certification for Presidential races in the U.S, the national electoral commission’s official count for global elections, or a particular media call source named in the platform’s resolution terms and conditions.
When using Kalshi or Polymarket, you should check the source named in the market rules before trading.
Where Resolution Gets Complicated
Election prediction markets are specifically affected by these three resolution complications:
Contested Election Results: A candidate may refuse to accept defeat, challenge vote counts, or file a case in court. No matter the issue, the market resolves only when the named source confirms the election outcome.
Delayed Certification: Election markets may remain open and volatile in situations where electoral certification processes are not completed.
Rule Specificity: Each platform may have its own resolution sources and cutoff terms for a particular election. If the named sources are different, an election market on Kalshi may not resolve at the same time as a market on Polymarket.
The Khamenei Market Example
In 2026, the backlash stemming from the Kalshi Khamenei market demonstrated how ill-defined resolution can still be an issue even if a rule is defined ahead of time:
Traders fought over whether the rule was properly disclosed and what it actually meant, as opposed to just not reading it.
Kalshi’s “death carveout” stipulated that the market would resolve at market price, not the $1 full payout traders believed they were signing up for.
Traders received fee/loss refunds and brought a class-action lawsuit.
Platform Considerations for Election Markets
Below are the most popular platforms with election prediction markets and political odds. It is important to note that before opening positions, traders should evaluate the fees paid on prediction markets, as trading charges and withdrawal costs can vary significantly between centralized exchanges and decentralized protocols.
Kalshi for US Elections
Known for deep liquidity, Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that covers Presidential, Congressional, and Senate control markets in the United States. Proper regulation means that the platform has well-defined rules, reliable dispute resolution mechanisms, and contracts denominated in USD. However, new users must complete full identity verification, and each state has its own access rules.
Polymarket for Global Elections
Polymarket stands out in the prediction market by covering more elections globally than any other platform. Trades and contracts are denominated in USDC, and users need a crypto wallet to deposit funds. Due to restrictions for traders in the U.S and other jurisdictions, you should verify eligibility in your location before registering to trade. One notable feature is the early exit option, which allows you to sell contracts before resolution.
Access, Jurisdiction, and Age Requirements
Access and age requirements for election prediction markets generally depend on your location.
Jurisdiction Varies Significantly
While eligible traders in the US can access Kalshi, the platform has faced legal issues in Arizona and Nevada. Polymarket restricts users in the US and other countries from accessing the platform. To participate in event contracts on Robinhood, you must be approved for a Robinhood Derivatives account, and the platform does not allow Maryland residents to trade event contracts.
Age Requirements
Traders must be at least 18 years of age to access election prediction markets on regulated platforms in the US. However, IBKR ForecastTrader requires users to be at least 21 years old. Read each platform’s terms to understand the age requirements before creating an account.
Practical Check: Access to a particular platform does not mean that election prediction markets are allowed in your country. For this reason, you must check for eligibility before depositing funds.
Responsible Use of Election Prediction Markets
Always remember to engage in responsible election trading by considering these two tips:
- Avoid Emotional Investment: A trader’s preferences or strong feelings towards a particular candidate in an election can compromise their judgment, leading them to trade on emotion rather than consider statistical probabilities. This results in poor decision-making, which can lead to losses. Reduce exposure if you find yourself increasing position size based on your political preferences.
- Set Loss Limits: Always set the maximum loss you are ready to accept before you start trading. This is important because election markets are generally volatile.
If election trading causes financial or emotional harm, visit Gambling Therapy for help.
Frequently Asked Questions About Election Prediction Markets
Are Prediction Market Prices the Same as Polling?
Prediction market prices and polls do not measure the same things. Polls act as snapshots that measure voters’ intentions and opinions at a particular time. Prediction market prices reflect the crowd-sourced probability that a certain outcome will occur. They use various information sources, including polls and fundraising data.
What Happens to My Contract If an Election Result Is Disputed?
The contract settles based on the resolution source named in the platform’s rules. For example, if an election market resolves upon electoral certification, it can only be resolved after certification. Do not trade any election contract without checking the platform’s resolution clause.
Which Platform Has the Most Election Markets?
Consider Kalshi if you want a platform with the deepest liquidity on Presidential, Congressional, and Senate control markets in the United States. Polymarket covers elections in various regions, including Europe, Asia, and Latin America, while PredictIt offers U.S political markets.
