Ripple placed 55 billion XRP into 55 separate on-chain escrow contracts in December 2017. Each of these contracts is designed to release 1 billion XRP monthly. The aim of the company was clear: transparency. Instead of creating an opaque system where crypto investors didn’t know what Ripple was doing behind closed doors, they built a publicly auditable supply schedule. Now anyone can see the block address with billions of tokens, and thanks to smart contracts, no institution can revert the lock, speed up the process or simply change the amount.
However, the system brought another mechanism. Ripple relocked the tokens that are not used immediately into new contracts. This forwarded the end date of the depletion month after month, predicting a 9-year period would be needed at this pace.
The escrow balance fell from 36.2 billion XRP in June 2025 to 32.9 billion XRP today. The data shows a net decrease of 3.3 billion over a year, which was supposed to be 12 billion XRP if Ripple were not relocking the tokens. The XRP’s circulating supply also climbed from 58.93 billion to over 62 billion tokens. The gap between the released tokens and circulating supply demonstrates that Ripple was putting around 700-900 million XRP back into escrow monthly. The company was retaining approximately 300 million tokens for its daily corporate operational costs, partnerships, legal infrastructure and ecosystem spending.
Three Scenarios and Three Very Different Futures
If Ripple keeps relocking the remaining tokens after using around 300 million XRP, the whole period could last 109 months, spreading the depletion over 9 years. If Ripple changes behavior, decides on using more tokens, or stops relocking, different scenarios would occur, each affecting the crypto ecosystem differently.
| Monthly Net Usage | Months to Depletion | Projected Year | Relock Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300M XRP | Nearly 109 months | Mid-2035 | 700-900M per month |
| 400M XRP | Nearly 82 months | Early-2033 | ~600M per month |
| 1,000M XRP (no relocking) | Nearly 33 months | Early-2029 | 0M per month |
What XRP Commentator Defends: Bill Morgan's Case for Acceleration
Bill Morgan, the notable XRP commentator, publicly stated that Ripple should reduce its relocking monthly. He defended that the sooner all tokens are released from escrow, the quicker XRP will become the best hard money. It has a simple logic: It’s easier for institutional participants like investment banks and companies to price with fully circulating tokens. It’ll be harder for them to make assumptions on an unpredictable multi-year release.
What Ripple Advocates: the Burn Question
David Schwartz, the CTO of Ripple, rejected the idea of acceleration and the burning proposal of the escrowed XRP tokens completely. He reminded the Stellar’s token burn as a lesson. In 2019, the team behind Stellar intentionally and permanently destroyed over 55 billion tokens, hoping that it would increase the price. Rather than making the price skyrocket, it just created a temporary market reaction. Schwartz defends that instead of focusing on a short-live output, they should aim for a durable and sustainable change. He also defended that the 9-year depletion assumption on the price of XRP is not certain because of Ripple’s real-time usage, which can change over time.
A Global Legal Bank or A Cryptocurrency Project?
Ripple recently got the approval from MiCA Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP), joining the only 17% of European crypto companies licensed before MiCA. As a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, the institution enables XRP tokens and payment services across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area. Holding that position, Ripple seems to be consistent with its institutional ambitions rather than looking for short-term price pumps. In this picture, supply predictability can be seen as a feature to be used but not an obstacle to fight with.
Two Theories: Which Future Awaits the XRP?
The cryptocurrency industry is split into two separate spheres for XRP’s long-term role, both backing their theories on reasonable grounds.
- The Hard-Money World: This group, including Bill Morgan, believes that XRP should behave like a classic decentralized cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin. That way, the cryptocurrency market can evaluate the real demand fundamentals without a predicted schedule.
- The Corporate World: This group sees Ripple’s measured distribution as a feature, not a liability. With controlled release, Ripple can build institutional credibility as a company.
A third concern runs beneath both sides: more net XRP entering the market each month without a proportional increase in demand becomes sell pressure. XRP’s current price does not obviously suggest that demand would absorb a significantly larger monthly net release without consequence.
