Macro pressure is taking charge, but veterans are standing down
Bitcoin is hovering around $62,600 on Wednesday, stuck between two forces pulling in different directions. A two-day rout in semiconductor stocks has left risk assets under duress, but on-chain data points to one of the market’s longest-standing sources of selling pressure beginning to fade.
What’s driving the macro selloff
- All 30 stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell Tuesday, with the index down 7.9%
- Micron, Marvell and On Semiconductor, all of which are up more than 100% in 2026, led the decline
- The S&P 500 fell 1.4% and the Nasdaq 100 was down 3.3%
- Asian chip stocks tried to bounce but failed with Taiwan Semi down 3%+ on Wednesday
Bitcoin followed the wider weakness and is sitting around 5% lower for the week.
OG Holders Near Break-Even Go Quiet
The main positive indicator from the blockchain is shown by a decreasing 90-day Moving Average of long-term holder spent coins – long-term holders are defined as those who held for at least 5 years – which has fallen down to 962 BTC (the lowest amount since late 2024), according to CryptoQuant.
Reasons for concerns
- The current bull cycle produced the most aggressive OG selling on record
- Major sell waves hit in May 2024, February 2025, and September 2025
- On some peak days alone, more than 142,000 BTC left OG wallets in a single outflow/sell session.
- The highest price any OG wallet could sell at would be approximately $63,200, which means that there is no real incentive to continue selling (to buy back in later) based on current pricing.
ETF outflows also continue to slow over the last 2 weeks giving further reason to be cautiously optimistic regarding the supply side.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Current Level | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | ~$62,600 | Neutral |
| OG selling (90-day avg) | 962 BTC | Bullish - 19-month low |
| Spot ETF 30-day flow | −$6B+ | Bearish - record outflow |
| USDT + USDC market cap | ~$260B | Bearish - lowest since March |
| Wintermute BTC range (24h) | $61,242–$63,563 | Tight - low conviction |
| Key downside level | $59,000 | Bear target |
$59,000 Is the Number Bears Are Watching
A digital asset trading firm Wintermute said that now a lot of tokens are moving together. There is not a lot of money being traded during the summer and we do not see any big investors buying. They said if things keep going like this the important price to watch is $59,000.
Additional warning signs
- There is $479 million in Bitcoin that people have deposited into Binance. This could mean that people are getting scared and selling their Bitcoin.
- The total value of top stablecoins USDT USDC has gone down by more than $7 billion since the beginning of May. This means that people are taking their money out of crypto.
- Traders need the price to close above $63,000 every day to make people feel better about the market.
What Needs to Happen
US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced a record 30-day net outflow and now exceeds $6B, this indicates a de-risking from the institution and presents an actual cap for any recovery rally, only to be refuted if there is definitive evidence to the contrary.
The levels that matter:
- $63,000 – levels bulls need to close above to show us signs of recovery.
- $60,000 – instant support, losing that leads us down to the 57.5K region.
- $59,000 – that’s the bear case we see at Wintermute and indeed it’s a general floor in this market.
While the cooling of legacy whale capitulation represents a substantial, constructive shift in on-chain structure, it remains insufficient to spark a macro reversal until institutional ETF outflows fully stem and equity market pressures stabilize.
