Macro Metrics Over Shadow Geopolitics
With the Federal Reserve maintaining benchmark interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% through late July, market participants will look to this week’s releases for clues on the health of the labor market and service sector inflation as traders size up Bitcoin’s potential direction.
5 US Macro Tests Trading Narratives on Fed Expectations
Monday, Aug 3 (10:00 AM ET) ISM Manufacturing PMI: Gives a first glimpse at industrial production and input prices for raw materials.
Tuesday, Aug 4 (10:00 AM ET) June JOLTS Job Openings: Offers a look at overall job demand and the tightness of the labor market.
Wednesday, Aug 5 ADP Private Employment & ISM Services PMI: Gauge of private-sector payroll trends. ISM Services will also give another inflation pulse check of the larger service economy.
Friday, Aug 7 (8:30 AM ET) July Employment Report (NFP): Headliner release of the week. Payroll growth slowed to 57K last month and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Any signs of surprise strength or weakness could steer the Fed’s next move on interest rates.
Earnings Highlights: AMD, SpaceX, Sandisk among other Tech and Industrial companies report quarterly earnings. These will contribute towards intraday equity noise of the crypto market this week.
Bitcoin Not Moving Higher on Iran News
Reports that President Donald Trump scrapped plans to attack Iran did little to lift cryptocurrency markets today. Although Iran news sent oil prices sharply lower, Brent crude oil falling by more than 5% at its worst, cryptocurrencies remained rangebound. Bitcoin traded up to $63,700 on Iran news but displayed little follow-through strength into North American trading hours. The weak crypto price action on decidedly bullish geopolitical news once again signals that crypto markets care little for supply/demand shocks in traditional energy commodities. Crypto investors care mostly about US dollar liquidity conditions and factors that drive moves in short-term interest rates and broad institutional demand.
The Fed wrapped up its July meeting and decided to leave interest rates unchanged, with the fed funds rate staying in a target range of 3.5%-3.75%. Despite the unanimous decision, policymakers voted 9-3, with three members voting in favor of a rate hike. However, since policymakers emphasized that future actions would be data-dependent, one good data point won’t be enough to end Bitcoin’s consolidation, especially for traders interested in buying BTC. It is important to see a series of upbeat data points forming a consistent macro story.
Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Levels Before Friday’s Payrolls Release
Bitcoin (markets trade between $62,700 and $63,000 ahead of Friday’s July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. Volatility is expected to increase around the release of the US jobs data. Below are some key levels to watch to assess the crucial figures relevant to Bitcoin dominance.
Major Resistance Levels (Bullish Targets)
Assuming Friday brings softer than expected jobs figures that reiterate signs of a cooling labor market and diminishing pressure on Fed rate hikes, Bitcoin must regain these overhang levels:
- Near Term Resistance ($63,700-$64,500): This level serves as the recent intraday high and intersects both the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. $64,500 must be reclaimed before we can say buyers have regained near-term momentum.
- Significant Resistance ($65,500-$66,000): Important technical zone consisting of the 50-month EMA and highly defended supply zone that has consistently seen leveraged shorts step in to defend. If prices were to manage a daily close above $66,000, we should see short liquidations fuel buying momentum.
- Macro Breakout Zone ($67,000-$70,000): Closing decisively above $67,000 will confirm a breakout from mid-summer trading range to the upside with further expansion towards $70,000 likely.
Important Support Levels (Bearish Cases)
Below are the downside floors should payroll data surprise to the upside or services data shows ongoing inflationary pressures, causing a hawkish re-pricing of rates:
- Immediate Support ($62,500-$63,000): Supports the weekly closing price level. Above $62,500 keeps BTC from being forced into long liquidations.
- Secondary Support ($61,300-$62,000): Below $62,500 is exposing the lower range of the recent ascending channel. Below $61,300 sets-up low dollar-handle before tapping the $60,000 level.
- Major Demand Floor ($57,800-$60,000): Below $60,000 turns the larger time-frame trend negative, ultimately retesting July’s dollar-handle low ($57,800). It is important to see $57,800 hold for macro/macro algo-correction to run its course.
Technical Summary Matrix
BTC price action ($62,750) remains trapped within a tight range as market players continue to wait on major macroeconomic triggers. Below is a technical summary highlighting support levels and resistance areas surrounding the cryptocurrency.
| Level Type | Price Range (USD) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Major Resistance | $67,000 | Confirms macro bullish reversal toward $70,000 |
| Primary Resistance | $65,500-$66,000 | 50-month EMA & short-liquidation trigger zone |
| Pivot Level | $63,700-$64,500 | Intraday high & 21-day/50-day moving averages |
| Current Spot | ~$62,750 | Mid-range consolidation zone |
| Immediate Support | $62,500-$63,000 | First defense line; prevents forced long unwinding |
| Secondary Support | $61,300-$62,000 | Lower channel boundary |
| Major Demand Floor | $57,800-$60,000 | Early July lows; losing this risks deeper correction |
Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Could Be Sparked by Incoming US Macro Data
Currently, traders are in a classic asymmetric risk trade-off. Should labor/services data surprise stronger, it will elevate bets that rates will remain higher for longer. That means more downside pressure on risk-assets. However, if we receive broader indications of labor slowing down, Treasury yields could fall. Bitcoin may see a technical bounce higher out of its current range to test major overhead resistance.
